Kashmir: 2029

Chapter 8: Shireen & Golab Earakh

2009-07-31T17:06:00.000-07:00

Indian Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi had phoned the UN General Secretary Sylvia Mazone that the UN troops could move into Kashmir and that they will not be stopped by the Indian border guards.

At 7 AM, the first white trucks and tanks of the UN started to roll onto the Muzaffarabad - Uri Highway and slowly started inching their way to Srinagar.

People had started lining the roads on both sides and showering the UN tanks with shireen and rose petals. UN troops were waving at the people and shaking hands with overwhelming crowds.

The convoy had difficulty moving their vehicles through the thick crowds who saw the UN as rescuers.

Chapter 7: Long chain of green trucks

2009-07-31T14:19:00.000-07:00

Never before had Kashmiris seen a one-way convoy of the Indian occupation troops that stretched from Avantipoor to Banihal. It was as though it were a long chain of green trucks stacked bumper to bumper. People were seen taunting the vacating troops with crude statements which roughly translated to, "we finally trampled the tricolor with our muddy boots."

Largely, people were seen distributing sweets among themselves and burning fire crackers. Many were also peacefully shouting pro-freedom slogans whenever they saw a convoy of retreating Indian soldiers.

There were also sporadic events of people pelting stones at the retreating Indian convoy, but the local police was largely able to control those crowds. In Islamabad, several Indian military personnel were roughed up by locals when they stepped out of their vehicles while on their way to Jammu. Two army personnel were paraded naked through the market before being rescued by the local police.

While the instructions to the retreating Indian soldiers was very clear: not to let the BJP and Shiv Senaks enter the valley. The roughing up incident at Islamabad left the retreating soldiers with a thirst for vengeance. This may be the reason why a bus carrying about ninety hardcore BJP supporters was let through all the way from Udhampur to enter the valley.

The bus could not have been more conspicuous. It had triangular saffron flags fluttering from all sides and an image of Shiva with a snake on his shoulder painted on the front of the bus. The lone bus was speeding on the deserted highway leading onto the valley and entered the Kashmir valley in the dead of night shortly after 2 AM. The bottleneck created by the Banihal Tunnel was cleared earlier that night and the backlog of the remaining convoy of Indian troops had already passed the tunnel.

The Hindu fanatics in the bus were sound asleep unaware that all their fellow country men occupying Kashmir had already left. All except for the few thousand army men holed up at the Badami Bagh cantonment. The bus was running low on petrol but the bus driver was sure that he could make it to Srinagar. They had planned they would pitch their tents in the middle of Lal Chowk, hoping that their fellow countrymen, their trusted soldiers will be there to protect them.

Among the fanatics in the bus was Vishal Modi, an MP from Gujrat and grandson of the infamous former Chief Minister of Gujrat, Narinder Modi.

A coup is thwarted

2009-07-31T13:21:00.000-07:00

Instructions from Rahul Gandhi to the Chiefs of Staff Committee was unambiguous: Vacate all forces from the valley and station them in Jammu, whereby, they'll camp till they are removed intermittently by trains to their home states. He also ordered all non-Kashmiris to leave the state of J&K, and prevent any Hindu fanatics from entering the valley. In Jammu, the troops were to assist in the removal of the Indian fanatics whose numbers had swelled to about 300,000 by that night. According to Rahul Gandhi's instructions, about two thousand Army Personnel would be left in the Kashmir Valley and a thousand persnnel in Kargil and Leh, until they are replaced by the UN forces.

When the Chief of Army Staff openly criticized the removal of their forces from Kashmir, some commentators on Indian TV channels started branding this as an open coup by the military. With rumors of a possible coup by the Indian Army as well as the Indian paramilitary forces spreading like wild fire, Rahul Gandhi immediately called an emergency meeting at the residence of the President of India of all Chiefs of the Indian Army, Navy, Air Force as well as the Directors General of the Coast Guard, BSF and the CRPF. After a hectic meeting that included the President, the Home Minister as well as the a number of retired military figures, Rahul Gandhi made it clear that he will consider any dissent as an attempted coup by the armed forces. When the Chief of Army Staff of the Indian Army continued to speak against the resolution and accused the Indian Prime minister of being a "half-blood" Indian to sell off so easily, the President, who is the Commander in Chief of the Indian Army immediately called for his dismissal and he was put under arrest right at the Rashtrapati Bhavan.

With the arrest and impending court martial of India's Chief of Army Staff, General Narinder S. Uphaday, the opposition felt it had been vindicated and that its fears were justified. It accused the Congress government of being "puppets of foreign forces."

Chapter 5: Fate of three nations

2009-07-30T10:10:00.000-07:00

His one decision would change the fate of three nations, and with it, the destiny of the whole world. What could have perhaps escalated into a nuclear war wiping out a third of the world's population was wisely changed into a practice in democracy.

Rahul Gandhi was to address the Indian Parliament at an emergency session and at the same time address his nation as well. He had earlier called President Williams and told her that his country would fully cooperate with the US and the UN but that he would be expecting major concessions and aid from her in other areas such as technology and science, to which she had readily agreed. He had warned her that this decision will first be brought up in the parliament and has to pass through both the houses. President Williams had concurred but responded by saying that she was already aware that he had persuaded most of his parliamentary committe to back him when it comes to vote on the bill in the parliament.

Most congress Members of Parliament who had been opposed to the UN resolution had been personally phoned by Rahul Gandhi to vote with the party. Indian hereditary politics allows for little dissension with the party leaders and all were reigned in. Therefore, there was little doubt what the PM would announce prior to the vote in the Indian lower house of parliament, and what the outcome of the vote would be. The Congress had a clear two thirds majority in the Parliament and the left leaning parties like the Communist Party had already declared their decision of supporting the UN resolution. The BJP and its allies were not going to concede so easily.

Predicting a victory in both houses of parliament, the PM had earlier directed his Home Minister to start pulling troops off the streets of Kashmir, and immediately send them to Jammu where they would assist in the removal of the BJP and Shiv Sena vandals. Kashmir had never witnessed such a swift turnaround of events. Almost immediately people could see thousands of Indian paramilitary troops, the CRPF, huddle all their belongings and head for the Srinagar-Jammu highway.

In contrast to the sombre mood in Jammu, Kashmir was already celebrating.

Chapter 4: No gray areas

2009-07-30T08:42:00.000-07:00

"Do you beleive in individual rights and government by the people Mr Gandhi?", President Williams had asked the Indian Prime Minister. He had hurriedly rushed to the White House from the Park Hotel as soon as the confirmation of the meeting was conveyed to him. He had been unable to answer that question directly knowing well that any answer in the affirmative would have been self-defeating. Kashmir was an Indian occupation, and the inhabitants wanted independence since the fateful day in 1947 when Indian troops had landed in Kashmir.

On his part, PM Rahul Gandhi had tried to convince President Williams of giving him more time--atleast two years, till things cool down in his country. President Williams had earlier spoken in private with her National Security staff who had run every possible scenario and outcome for holding a referendum in Kashmir. They had advised her that should the referendum be delayed for any more than a month, it would never happen, just as was the case with the previous UN resolution in the 50's. Furthermore, they had advised that any more killings of unarmed protesters and brutal suppression of Kashmiris by Indians was bound to escalate into a war between Pakistan ans India. She could not afford a war--a nuclear war at that--on her watch.

President Williams had seen similar adamant behaviour before from the Israelis during her days as the Secretary of State, when the Israelis were unwilling to consider full sovereign powers to Palestine. The Israelis had been pushing for a Palestinian state with their air corridors controlled by Israel. Finally, Israel had to concede when the US did not buy any of their arguments, and Palestine was granted full sovereign rights of their land, air space as well as waters.

"There are no gray areas in democracy Mr. Prime Minister. There cannot be any gray areas. You cannot pick and choose which areas of your nation enjoy the full rights of liberty, justice, and freedom of movement and assembly. I have reports of Indian troops perpetrating unspeakable horrors on the Kashmiri people with impuntiy. This has to stop. In the 21st century, just the thought of these acts being perpetrated on a daily basis is unacceptable." President Williams said.

Indian PM Rahul Gandhi left the meeting with no concessions and a stern warning: Agree to the UN consensus or risk being an outcast in the international community. According to the UN timeline, about two thousand EU troops should begin to trickle into Srinagar within a week. But they needed assurance from the Indian Prime Minister that his country is onboard.

As a member state of the UN that participated in the deliberations for this resolution, India was bound by the outcome; therefore, the UN troops could simply roll into Srinagar. However, no country wanted to risk the safety of their troops, therefore they were asked to halt in Muzaffarabad.

As soon as Rahul Gandhi landed in New Delhi, he rushed to the urgent meeting which he had called at his residence. Looking weary and unkempt, and with red, sleep deprived eyes, he addressed all his party members and the Congress Parliamentary Committee.

He had prepared his speech while in the plane and knew that he had to have his party members behind him on this one. He had already made up his mind: he could not risk alienating the world community.

In his address to his party members, he laid out the facts as he saw them. President Williams' ultimatum was the most contentious of all. Somehow illiterate Indian Members of Parliament could not fathom that the opinion of the world community could have a bearing on events in India. But PM Rahul Gandhi was aware of the repurcussions of ignoring this call for implentatation of the basic democratic principles--the right of a people to chose their own destiny.

Deep down PM Rahul Gandhi was aware of the injustices carried out by his country on hapless Kashmiris. He had seen intel reports of systematic rape, torture, and murders carried out by Indian troops in Kashmir. He had seen classified reports of the Indian Intelligence Bureau, where specific instructions had been given to shoot unarmed protesters to deter people from participating in pro-freedom marches. However, he did not want to speak out against them while he was in the opposition, or act on them while in power because that would mean more international scrutiny on the Indian occupation. He knew that no matter how he justfied it, every thing boild down to his country occupying Kashmir.

But for the political ramifications, he would have called back troops from Kashmir the very first day he was elected Prime Minister. If Kashmir wanted independence, let them have it, he had no problem with it. But the weight of ruling a largely illiterate and fundamentalist country had bogged him down. The fundamentalists would have called for his public hanging for even suggesting granting Kashmir independence. Bharat Mata! he had thought.

After heated arguments in the Congress meeting, he had asked for a vote. A thin majority of the members voted to cooperate with the UN. The rest of the members had started shouted slogans as though they were opposition members.

PM Rahul Gandhi called the UN High Commisioner and informed him that he will relay the final decision that evening. He also called President Williams and said the same.

Chapter 3: Invasion of the saffron robes

2009-05-02T03:38:00.000-07:00

More than a hundred thousand Hindutva supporters, most of them armed with machetes, sticks, and tridents descended on Jammu on April 22, 2020; two days after the UN Security Council passed the plebiscite resolution, and the same day that Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi flew to Washington for an emergency meeting with President Williams.

Wearing saffron scarves or robes, and their foreheads smeared with red color to signify their willingness to battle anything that will attempt to stop them, this angry crowd had traveled thousands of kilometres to be here and were determined to make their way to Srinagar. Earlier in the day, in the wee hours of the morning, they had burned down the police checkpost at Lakhanpur. The Kashmir Police personnel posted there were in hospital and had barely managed to escape with their lives.

The invaders occupied the Parade ground, the courtyards of temples, and even schools, colleges and universities. The people of Jammu largely welcomed the arrival of these rescuers, and people were seen distributing food and water among the crowds. However, the muslim residents of Jammu were very apprehensive and mostly barricaded themselves indoors.

Most senior BJP, RSS and Shiv Sena leaders were under house arrest or already in police custody. Many of them were arrested overnight while leading cavalcades on the highway leading to Jammu. The procession, which the BJP dubbed the "pilgrimage to save our mother India", still carried on and even without any clear leadership, developed a life of its own. Some junior BJP leaders addressed the mammoth crowds at Parade Grounds, and incited the crowds to remain determined until they reached Srinagar.

The crisis could not have presented itself at a worse moment for Chief Minister Omar Abdullah. Soon after Rahul Gandhi was elected Prime Minister, he had appointed Omar Abdullah as caretaker Chief Minister. Shortly after, elections were held, there was minimal turnout, and Omar Abdullah's National Conference had won enough seats to form the government on its own. Hurriyat had boycotted the elections, because their government had been dismissed by the BJP in 2016.

Chapter 2: Midnight trysts

2009-05-02T01:52:00.000-07:00

The opposition BJP had warned the government that it risked a no confidence motion in the parliament should it accept the UN resolution. They had already called for a country-wide complete bandh for three consecutive days beginning the day the UN Security Council passed the plebiscite resolution. The bandh was a phenomenal success even in muslim dominated regions of India. The ruling Indian National Congress was faced with a crisis that could potentially threaten its existence in Indian polity. The Prime Minister of India, Rahul Gandhi, had had very little sleep because of a series of all-night closed-door meetings with his confidantes and senior party members. Later it was revealed that most senior Congress members were in favour of ignoring the UN resolution.

It was however Rahul Gandhi's first real test as Prime Minister. He was apprehensive of souring relations with President Williams of the US, who was even more popular worldwide than her predecessor President Obama. India had just begun to recover from a sharp economic downturn, and any signs of non-cooperation with the international community would further isolate it. Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi was faced with a dilemma that could potentially see Rahul Gandhi being labeled as a leader of a rogue state which defies world opinion, should he ignore the UN resolution, or it could help the opposition BJP paint him as a weak leader who sold a "piece of Mother India" just to appease President Williams, if he were to comply with UN demands.

Just a couple of years prior, in the 2017 Indian general elections, the Congress had won by a razor-thin majority, and had regained the seat of power from a loose coalition of right-wing parties led by the BJP, which had ruled India for three years since 2015. During this time, the BJP had suspended peace talks with Pakistan, ignored the US special representative for Kashmir, dismissed the government of Kashmir, amended the constitution to abolish article 370, and imposed Governor's rule in Kashmir. In a sign of further disregard for international opinion, which was moving toward de-nuclearization of the planet, the government under BJP Prime Minister Arun Jaitley defiantly accelerated nuclear weapons research, and successfully tested a long-range missile with nuclear capabilities in 2016. This shocked the world, and President Obama was forced to impose tough economic sanctions against India. This was followed by separate UN sanctions. This resulted in loss of foreign investment, large-scale job losses, and a very unpopular BJP. Before the Congress was able to call for a no-confidence motion, the loose coalition fell apart and India was again faced with a general election in 2017, and Rahul Gandhi was elected as Prime Minister. Just when India was facing a wave of goodwill toward the Congress, and Rahul Gandhi was poised to mend relations with the rest of the world, the plebiscite resolution could not have come about at a more inopportune moment.

A close confidante of Mr. Rahul Gandhi had later confessed in his autobiography that during this period, the worst fear that Mr Gandhi had was to leave a legacy where he would be remembered by history as the worst Prime Minister of India who caused the disintegration of India. He also feared that any compliance with the UN demands would mean a resurgence of the right-wing BJP and potentially resend Congress back to the opposition benches for the rest of his lifetime. He flew the next day to the US for an emergency meeting with President Williams. The opposition swooped up on this news and began calling him a puppet Prime Minister.

A few congress Members of Parliament were openly speaking against the plebiscite. It would be a real possibility that these MPs would vote against their own government to spare them the wrath of the electorate.

Chapter 1: A series of fortunate events

2009-05-01T23:26:00.000-07:00

It is the year 2029. Five years since Kashmir gained its independence from India and Pakistan. What a joyous day it was exactly six years to the day when the results of the plebiscite were announced and Kashmiris came out in throngs to cast their votes for which they had yearned for over 80 years. The plebiscite was monitored by the UN and never before had an election been so closely monitored. All polling booths had 24 hour monitoring by security cameras. Although both India as well Pakistan still had a sizable military presence in the few bases they still occupied; however, the troops were barred from leaving their bases during the polling days without prior UN approval.

People had the option of advance voting for upto six days before the main day of plebiscite which was on May 15. The plebiscite was being undertaken by the UN. All together more than 120 countries volunteered their resources for this plebiscite. The majority of the peacekeeping force consisted of EU forces and the military operations were supervised by a Turkish commander General Mustafa Sairgul.

Voting started at 7 A.M and people had started lining up outside the booths from the night before. The last vote could be cast until 10 P.M the same day. As per UN directions, the results had to be declared within 12 hours. No one could sleep on that day. People had seen elections for the state assembly under India, but none had the legitimacy as this plebiscite. This would decide the fate of an entire nation. How could anyone sleep that night.

With people still camping out in the streets in the cool night in the month of May, and people dancing and singing traditional songs, Vanvun as Kashmiris call it, everyone was awaiting the results, how could anyone sleep on this night.

The UN appointed commissioner of elections, Mr Schwartzkopff, finally appeared on TV just after midnight and started to give a brief explanation of how the voting results were tallied and the procedure he had to follow. He explained that although there was regional variance in the results; however as per UN guidelines the former state of J&K would not be divided and he would therefore congratulate the people of Kashmir who have chosen independence.

There was not a happier day in Kashmir. There were loud noises of music blaring through loudspeakers and fireworks that lit the sky. At one moment there were so many firecrackers in the sky that it seemed it was daylight.

Both India and Pakistan had earlier withdrawn a majority of their troops from all areas of Kashmir but still maintained a few bases in Srinagar and Muzaffarabad. Shortly after the results of the plebiscite was declared, both countries had been ordered by a UN sanction to vacate all remaining forces within 12 months. Thereafter May --, 2024 was declared as Kashmir's Indepedence Day.

As was aniticipated, there was widespread violence in Jammu city and Leh. Kashmir was still under UN supervision and the EU Commander in charge of all security in Kashmir , Gen. Sairgul requested more international assisstance in maintaining law and order in Jammu city and Leh.

It was agreed upon that there will be a transition period whilst India and Pakistan remove all their troops from Kashmir. Kashmir will be supervised by a UN military mission while a democratically elected government is in place. This way no single political party could manipulate the outcome in their favour. All parties, including the pro-India and Pro-Pakistan, as well as pro-Independence parties could participate in these elections.

Miscreants in Jammu city and Leh had called for a complete boycott of all elections as they claimed that they had voted to join India in the plebiscite therefore all subsequent elections for the Kashmir parliament or for regional councils are meaningless. All political leaders had promised more autonomy to the Jammu and Ladakh regions and promised them complete autonomy and guaranteed representation in the governance of Kashmir.

The resolution to hold a plebiscite in Kashmir was put forth by a special UN committee, which was formed on the recommendation of the UN Security Council in August 2018. That resolution was subsequently debated in the UN General Assembly the following year. "This is a direct assault on the integrity of a sovereign nation, and it is only a matter of time before other sovereign countries will be asked to hold plebiscites in their own troubled regions.", the Indian envoy to the UN, Mr. Prashant Mishra, had warned other member states in his deliberation to the UN General Assembly. The American Ambassador to the UN, Ms Marianne Klassen argued in favour of the plebiscite and noted that, "...the people of Kashmir had been promised a plebiscite by the UN Assembly eighty years ago. It is time to live up to that promise and grant them the basic right of freedom of choice. It is imperative that democracy prevail. That is the least we can do for these beleaguered people.", she had said. The resolution was put to vote in April 2020 and passed with majority of the members voting in favour and only a few abstentions. India was the lone opposer. The security council subsequently held a series of meetings and ratified the resolution. Earlier, China and Russia were rumored to have promised India that they would use their veto power to halt the resolution. Chinese concerns were primarily affixed to the spillover this resolution might have in Tibet. And the Russians were wary of the parallelism that the Kashmir issue had with their troubled region of Chechnya. Inspite of these hurdles, the US had given assurances to both veto wielding powers that a plebiscite in Kashmir would not cascade into demands for plebiscites in Chechnya or Tibet. This seemed to have worked and with US backing, Kashmir was guaranteed a plebiscite.

Immediately after the resolution was passed, there were widespread riots in most states of India. The opposition BJP had threatened a mass procession right upto Srinagar where they had warned they would set up tent colonies in parks and roadsides to assert Indian dominance. "Kashmir is an integral part of our country and an inseparable limb of mother India. You cannot behead our mother and expect us not to react. We give little importance to the UN resolutions. We dare them to even lay a finger on Kashmir", an ailing L.K. Advani had warned from his bedside in Delhi's Apollo hospital. A mammoth procession of close to a fifty thousand heavily armed hindu fundamentalist supporters of Indian Member of Parliament from Pilibhit, UP, Varun Gandhi, were stopped while making their way to Delhi. Police had to use tear gas and water cannons to disperse the crowds. He had warned that he would lead the procession to Srinagar within weeks as buses would become available. He never made it - the UN forces were here before.

"A new era of peace and prosperity will usher in South Asia", declared President Christina Williams in reference to the impending plebiscite in Kashmir. She was the first female US president and had served in the Obama administration as Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia under Hillary Clinton. She was later appointed as the Secretary of State during President Obama's second term. Her lasting legacy in her role as Secretary of State was bringing peace to the Middle-East and resolving the Palestine-Israel conflict. This made her an immediate favourite in the US as well as the rest of the world, and she easily cruised to victory in the 2016 US Presidential election. No other previous Democratic candidate in US history had won by a 73% popular vote.

She was determined to resolve the longest unresolved conflict in the world. In 2016, during the last few months of President Obama's presidency, both India and Pakistan had successfully tested laser guided missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads with a range of over ten thousand miles. The world was horrified at the prospect of yet another war, and none doubted that the Kashmir conflict needed to be resolved to eliminate the only remaining nuclear flashpoint in the world. Kashmir was the most urgent agenda at the Whitehouse.